F1 Italian GP

[jeffers]

It's the Italian GP this weekend and the stunning Monza track it's always worth a watch, in what's turning into a cracker of a season.

I said to myself during the Belgian GP two weeks ago that there was one bet I was gonna do for the Italian race...so here it is:

Adrian Sutil PODIUM @ $7.00 with Centrebet
The Force India car, and team infact, are going from strength to strength at the moment and are really turning into a decent outfit. The thing that is going to make them strong at this venue is their excellent straight line speed, which will come right into play here. It's an outside bet for sure, but it's far from impossible - Sutil ran an impressive 5th in Belgium and is a talented driver.

[jeffers]

Annoyingly the range of markets at Centrebet is very limited

Aussies can still bet with other sites though, and Paddy Power has a great range of markets, here's a couple more bets on Sutil there:

Top SIX Finish @ $1.72
Winner (E/W 1/5 1-2-3) @ $26

[GameTipper]

WOW, $26 on Sutil?! Sure they have a competitive package for the mid-range cars, but they have not been able to qualify in this car all year... which has stuffed them no end. Getting $13 for a top 3 place is pretty good though. You'd probably expect a little carnage at this race as well, so well worth the punt for sure. If you wait until after Qualifying, all the Aussie markets tend to open up a bit and offer more options, but still doesn't compare to the Euro markets. Also, waiting until after qualifying does make a difference in the odds, so if you think a mid-range or back-marker can fly through the pack or keep off the walls or others cars while they all fall like cards around them, then getting on early is great!

Remember that USA race where only 4-6 cars started and the rest were banned due to bad tires? I got on the 3rd placed car which had never finished above 14th and cleaned up at $125/1 - ahhh those were the days when online bookmakers were WAY too slow in updating their markets, will never happen again, but was glad to profit out of it!

[GameTipper]

Sutil is now paying $126.00 on Sportsbet.com, and $201.00 on Centrebet.com.au for the win. He qualified 11th and was way off the pace. No matter, plenty of options are now available at Centrebet to bet on...

Winner, Top 10 Finish, Safety Car, Top 3 Finish, Winning Margin, Fastest Lap, Winning Team, First Lap Leader, Pole Position Wins?, First Lap Failures, First Driver Retirement, First Team Retirement,
Winning Nationality...

Webber, who qualified 4th fastest is $13 (SportsBet) and $7.50 (Centrebet) to win, and I like the chances of the Aussie here, despite his starting place. Alonso ($1.80 Centrebet) starts in pole for Ferrari, with Button ($4.25 Centrebet) and Massa ($13 Centrebet) following. Webber will follow Button down the long straight through to the first turns, which is a tight right/left combo which could cause all sorts of carnage, and if he gets through ok, his race pace should carry him through. Of the others, Hamilton ($6 Sportsbet) starting from 5th, and Vettel ($21.00 Sportsbet) starting from 6th, may also get tied up in accidents, or if they make it through clean, will gun for a win, as both can not afford Webber to skip away from them. As far as the others go, forget it, no one else in my opinion will make it close to the top 6 here, and will simply be fighting for minor places.

Of the more exotic bets, I like the Winning Margin bet, where you pick the time difference between 1st and 2nd. I'll get on the 11 to 15.999 Seconds margin at Centrebet @ $6.00 here.

The Fastest Lap of the race is a tricky one, and has been decided late in the race due to the current fuel restrictions, I think Vettel may pop up again later in the race to claim this one, and hence I'll be taking the $5.50 at Centrebet for this one.

The First Lap Failures option at this circuit will certainly be interesting to say the least! Very hard to pick as Centrebet has options 0,1,2,3,4 & 5+... I'll hang out on a limb and predict 3 cars will not make it past the first lap here @ $12.00 - It's so tempting to take the 5+ though, and @ $17.00 it may be worth the punt!

The Pole Position wins market is generally a 50/50, or rather a yes/no bet. Considering pole position has been somewhat of a hoodoo, taking the NO option will return $1.94, while YES returns $1.80. This option makes me scratch my head somewhat, as it's 23 drivers v one (or 5 if what I wrote above is correct!) Still, there have been a lot of non-winners from pole, so I too will follow this one and back the NO option @ $1.94!

Earlier in the week I selected Button to win, Webber second and Hamilton Third. I no longer think this will be the case. I think it'll be Webber 1st, Hamilton 2nd and Vettel 3rd... Providing the first three crash on the first set of corners!

Have a good race everyone!

[GameTipper]

Oh well... better luck next time hey! Nothing I selected came off at this round, but was close on the first lap prediction, falling 1 car short of a win. Pole finished first, time margin was 2.9 seconds, and of course Webber fuzzed the start which blew any chance of a win. Ho Hum, woe is me!

[jeffers]

Shambles for me...started badly and got worse