Semi Final - Geelong v Fremantle

[adam]

Match Preview
Fremantle travel to the MCG for the first time in season 2010 to take on Geelong side still rattled with last week’s shock loss. The Cats will be heavily backed to progress onto a third match in four years against the Pies but the Dockers will back themselves to get up.

For the first time in four years the Cats will have to win their way to their fourth consecutive Grand Final the hard way after a disappointing 4 point loss against the Saints in wet conditions at the MCG. Despite trailing by 33 points midway in the third quarter the Cats fell agonisingly short after a suspect free kick cost them a match winning goal. They should regain Tom Lonergan and James Podsiadly and despite going down in their round 3 encounter the Dockers shave only beaten the Cats once away from Subiaco since entering the competition. Hard to go past the Cats at $1.11.

Fremantle will travel to the MCG for the first time this season after a stirring win against the Hawks by 30 points. The win did take its toll with Aaron Sandilands heavily restricted with a knee injury and while the club has declared he will play his output may be limited. For many Dockers it will be their first match at the MCG, a ground they haven’t won at since 2007. Matthew Pavlich quoted earlier in the week that as long as the ground has grass and posts at each end the Dockers will go in confident, odds of $6.70 suggest the Dockers have little hope.

Verdict
The Cats are heavily favored to win through to their fourth consecutive Preliminary Final in as many years with the Cats out to prove their ‘era’ is far from spent. The Dockers have been gallant this season and they will be better for the experience but winning would almost seem impossible.

My Tip - Geelong by 36 points

[hot.pies]

loving the tips last week Adam. Nailed a nice little multi for all 4 teams that was paying 11.5 to 1. For this game however, I cant go past the Fremantle line of +38.5 @ 1.92 with CBet. Its going to be cold, wet and windy in Melbourne tomorrow night. I dont think it will be a belting like many are predicting. Ill give Freo a 20% chance of winning this. 6.7 for the win is tempting for a small stakes bet, but cant go past that line.

Best bet this week for me:

Freo +38.5 pts @ 1.92 into Swans to beat Dogs @ 1.87 = 3.59 to 1

[adam]

loving the tips last week Adam. Nailed a nice little multi for all 4 teams that was paying 11.5 to 1. For this game however, I cant go past the Fremantle line of +38.5 @ 1.92 with CBet. Its going to be cold, wet and windy in Melbourne tomorrow night. I dont think it will be a belting like many are predicting. Ill give Freo a 20% chance of winning this. 6.7 for the win is tempting for a small stakes bet, but cant go past that line.

Best bet this week for me:

Freo +38.5 pts @ 1.92 into Swans to beat Dogs @ 1.87 = 3.59 to 1

Welcome to the forum hot.pies!!

Yeah the Freo +38.5 points could be a good bet, it will be very tight around that line. Geelong can handle the wet conditions no worries, infact when it start pouring last week thats when they began their comeback.

Freo are an itneresting team though. They have been playing well, but on a ocld night in Melbourne they may struggle a little. Good luck with yours bets though, super value if you ask me

[hot.pies]

Cheers, good to be aboard. I (along with many people Collingwood supporters) would love to see Freo get up in this one. One - it would be great for our chances. Two - good to see Freo in the Prelims. Seems like theyre everyones team they would love to see win a flag, if not theyre own. Guess well have to wait this one out.

[GameTipper]

Geelong v Fremantle

The Gut Call...
This is actually a hard selection, although betting against Geelong has been hazardous this year to say the least. Freo will make a game of this in trying conditions, but it will be the polish and class that shines through the dark and soggy skies at the MCG on Friday night. I'm tipping Geelong by 28pts

GameTipper Blind Betting... *hicup*
Head2Head: $1.12
Win Margin 39.5: 1-39 @ $2.36
Win Margin 100: 20-29 @ $7.90
Q/Q/Q/Q Tip: Gee/Gee/Gee/Gee @ $1.28
1st Scoring Play: Geelong Goal @ $3.05
Odds sourced from Centrebet

[GameTipper]

Multi this week is a simple one: Geelong Under 39.5 @ $2.36/Sydney Under 39.5 @ $2.58 = $6.08

Looking for a huge multi? I'll be trying this one out too:
Geelong to win between 20-29pts @ $7.90/Sydney to win between 10-19pts @ $8.70 = $68.73

The Upset multi maybe? Freo to win @ $6.45/Bulldogs to win by under 19pts @ $4.65 = $29.99

[Jnr202]

geelong by 20