2010 Brownlow Medal - Team By Team Review

[adam]

You can make some good money betting on the Brownlow Medal, but you don't have to just back the winner, there are plenty of other popular bet types out there giving you some very good value.

One i really like is at Centrebet.com.au which allows you to bet on which player will be the highest vote poller for their particular club. It is a good alternative to betting on the outright winner because you can use some trends to pick the value bets.

I plan to preview every teams chances in this thread over the next day or too and welcome any other opinions

[adam]

Adelaide Crows

	Player	Odds
	Scott Thompson	$1.36
	Richard Douglas	$6.00
	Simon Goodwin	$10.00
	Graeme Johncock	$16.00
	Kurt Tippett	$16.00
	Taylor Walker	$34.00

My Phantom Brownlow Votes

• Scott Thompson (15)
• Simon Goodwin (9)
• Richard Douglas (8)

Is clearly a three way tossup between Thompson, Goodwin and Douglas. I expect Thompson to win but i doubt id be betting as he appears way too short for my liking. I had Goodwin polling three best on grounds, but that was all. He may poll in some other games, but i dont think it will be enough to draw close to Thompson.

Douglas had a very quiet start to the year, but came home fairly well at the end of the season. I had him polling 4 votes in the final three games and if he does manage to poll better than expected in the first half of the year, he may out-poll Goodwin. But again, neither will poll ahead of Thompson, so id recommend him.

My Tip - Scott Thompson

[Jnr202]

richmonds brett delidio at $3.50 is pretty good value..will be fighting with jack.

[adam]

Brisbane Lions

	Player	Odds
	Jonathan Brown	$1.68
	Simon Black	$3.30
	Michael Rischitelli	$12.00
	Jared Brennan	$15.00
	Luke Power	$21.00
	Tom Rockliff	$26.00
	Travis Johnstone	$41.00

My Phantom Brownlow Votes

• Jonathan Brown (13)
• Simon Black (10)
• Jared Brennan (7)

Is a toss up between the colours - Brown and Black! Brown had a great year and was a clear best on ground in three games. He stormed home being best on ground in the final two games so that may just get him over the line.

Black is a regular vote getter, even when he looks to of had a quiet year he still polls well. He is a former winner and has finished top three countless amount of times. Despite the fact i have Brown finishing higher in my Phantom Brownlow, it's definitely possible Black can win and at $3.30 he is worth a small stakes bet.

I have Black best on ground in two games and getting 1 or 2 votes in several others, plus Brown missed six matches through injury.

Tip - Simon Black at $3.30

[adam]

Carlton Blues

	Player	Odds
	Chris Judd	$1.05
	Marc Murphy	$9.00
	Kade Simpson	$34.00
	Jeff Gartlett	$41.00
	Bryce Gibbs	$67.00
	Andrew Walker	$81.00

My Phantom Brownlow Votes

• Chris Judd (20)
• Andrew Walker (7)
• Jeff Gartlett (6)
• Eddie Betts (5)

Unless your a highroller and want to bet $100,000 or so to pick up a tidy $5,000 profit which is better than bank interest, then id recommend staying clear of Carlton. Judd will win and Judd will win well. He is always a good vote poller and he had a ripper year, particular the first half. It's doubtful anyone will get within single digits of him.

Interesting the bookies rate Marc Murphy so high in the betting but i dont have him in my top four. I don't think he had that outstanding a year. Walker was handy earlier in the year, but it will be pretty tight for second spot.

My Tip - Chris Judd

[adam]

Collingwood Magpies

	Player	Odds
	Dane Swan	$1.18
	Scott Pendlebury	$4.50
	Alan Didak	$23.00
	Travis Cloke	$51.00
	Harry O'Brien	$81.00
	Dale Thomas	$81.00
	Dane Beams	$301.00

My Phantom Brownlow Votes

• Dane Swan (31)
• Scott Pendlebury (20)
• Alan Didak (9)
• Travis Cloke (6)

Another pretty straight forward one. Dane Swan was my runaway Phantom Brownlow Medal winner this year, plus is the raging Brownlow favourite with all bookmakers, so id be nuts to recommend anyone else. The $1.18 is actually value in my opinion and the only thing stopping him being $1.05 like Chris Judd is the form of Scott Pendlebury.

Pendlebury will wrap up second spot at Collingwood fairly convincingly, then the next positions are pretty much in the open. Didak had a excellent middle of the season and i think he'll come in at third for the Pies.

My Tip - Dane Swan

[britty]

hi adam new poster been following for a while... excellent thread and love your phantom brownlow work.. do you know if you can still do these bets as multi's as previous years??

[adam]

hi adam new poster been following for a while... excellent thread and love your phantom brownlow work.. do you know if you can still do these bets as multi's as previous years??

Welcome to the forum Britty!

As far as im aware you can. I haven't tried to do it yet, but i imagine it would be possible.

[Jnr202]

centrebet wont allow you to do it.

[britty]

ahh shit dont think u can fellas.. too bad id cleaned up with multi's last year using your phantom keep up the good work adam