Elimination Final - Sydney v Carlton

[adam]

Discuss the clash between Sydney and Carlton here. Any betting tips or match previews should be posted here.

Elimination Final
Sydney v Carlton
ANZ Stadium, Sunday 2:40pm

Odds (Centrebet)
Sydney - $1.44
Carlton - $2.81

Next Week
For those wondering, the loser of this match will be eliminated, while the winner will go on to face the loser of the Collingwood v Bulldogs match.

[jeffers]

Real tough one this for the Blues...I think I'd rather have had a repeat of R22, goig to Subi, than this match. Sydney match up ridiculously well against the Blues, I think it's 13 of the last 14 they've won or something stupid like that...

[Jnr202]

sydney in a close one...by 13 points

[adam]

Match Preview
Carlton travel to ANZ Stadium to take on Sydney on Sunday afternoon with Carlton Skipper Chris Judd declaring his side will be even more desperate after last year’s elimination final loss while Sydney will need to overcome their poor record at ANZ Stadium to continue their finals campaign.

Sydney ended a horror season for the Lions last week with a 38 point win despite being down by 1 point at half time. Importantly the Swans have ended the home and away season in the best possible form having won their last four matches by an average of 34 points. Their form is even more impressive considering three of those sides are finals contenders. The Swans will also regain Tadgh Kennelly, Daniel Hannebury and Shane Mumford and deserve to be $1.47 favorites considering they have won four of their last five encounters against the Blues.

Carlton haven’t had an ideal preparation having lost their last two games including last week going down to fellow finals contender Fremantle at Subiaco by 6 points in a close encounter. Jeff Gartlett, Eddie Betts and Chris Yarran loom as the key players for the Blues if they are to kick a winning score, last time the two sides meet in round 16 they combined for just three goals with the Blues going down by 39 points. Despite their poor record against the Swans the Blues will take some confidence playing the Swans at ANZ Stadium rather than the SCG, Sydney have won just three of their last ten games at the venue.

Verdict
You would expect the Blues finals campaign to end but Sydney’s record at ANZ Stadium is far from impressive, the Blues at their best could cause an upset but the safe bet would be to stick with the Swans, their record and form in the home and away season should be enough to put them into the second week of finals.

My Tip – Sydney by 14 points

[Ned]

Huge game this one between two pretty similiar sides. Sydney are certainly the favourite and deserve to be after such a convincing win over the lions last week. Kieron Jack has become a star for them and its great to Paul Roos coach a final in his final season in Sydney.
Carlton also deserve to be in this game but not so much as the favourite. I think the last eight weeks have spoiled a fairly successful year that in my book should have been better after such a good start. If my memory proves to be correct, Carlton were early on three wins above losses. That's a big fall from grace after defeating such good opponents in St. Kilda and Geelong early in the year.
Anyway, this is shaping up to be a classic and if Carlton win and Collingwood loses, looks like a 100,000 crowd job at the MCG the week after.

Carlton by 14

[stan650]

hi all,

Recent Matches Between Sydney Swans and Carlton Blues
Date Venue Home v Away Teams Result High Disposals High Goals
R16, 18/07/10 Etihad Stadium Carlton defeated by Sydney 68-107 C. Judd 28 R. Shaw 3
R16, 18/07/09 Etihad Stadium Carlton defeats Sydney 124-63 R. O'Keefe 33 B. Fevola 5
R4, 18/04/09 SCG Sydney defeats Carlton 84-67 J. Waite 31 E. Betts 3
R16, 20/07/08 Etihad Stadium Carlton defeated by Sydney 119-121 R. O'Keefe 29 B. Fevola 5
R15, 15/07/07 SCG Sydney defeats Carlton 162-100 N. Malceski 28 B. Hall 4
R22, 3/09/06 SCG Sydney defeats Carlton 136-44 H. Scotland 33 A. Goodes 4
R3, 15/06/06 Etihad Stadium Carlton defeated by Sydney 74-81 L. Barry 29 M. O'Loughlin 4
R11, 4/06/05 Etihad Stadium Carlton defeated by Sydney 91-116 J. Bolton 31 B. Hall 5
R14, 3/07/04 Princes Park Carlton defeated by Sydney 84-95 B. Kirk 23 B. Hall 6
R16, 19/07/03 Princes Park Carlton defeated by Sydney 84-115 A. Koutoufides 27 B. Fevola 6

ANZ is a bigger ground than previous grounds played on and supposed to be fine weather but
2 weeks of travelling and recent record must play some sort of factor. swanies under 39 I think.

[adam]

I read a stat earlier today saying that Carlton have not won in Sydney since 1993 and have never won an interstate final before.

Not a good stat heading into an interstate final in sydney

[GameTipper]

Sydney v Carlton

The Gut Call...
I'm tipping Sydney by 24pts

GameTipper Blind Betting... *hicup*
Head2Head: $1.46
Win Margin 39.5: 1-39 @ $2.27
Win Margin 100: 20-29 @ $8.20
Q/Q/Q/Q Tip: Car/Syd/Syd/Syd @ $8.00
1st Scoring Play: Sydney Behind @ $3.55
Odds sourced from Centrebet

[puntergonelucky]

carlton by 15 pts....
Carlton to win by 1-19 pts .... @6.00....
Carlton + 15.5 ... @1.90.....

[fishy]

Gutsy win for the Swans. Sydney versus Western Bulldogs is a very interesting clash next week.